The November Stats are out from the Honolulu Board of Realtors, and a lot of good news is popping up. Sales are still showing strength, and inventory is at levels not seen since 2005. Typically, stronger sales and low inventory, push median prices up. So far however, prices have been resistant to moving, and remain very flat. Flat is not a bad thing. Here is a brief summary of the November stats.
Number of Sales: SFH sales in November (246) increased over October 2011 (228) and November 2010 (237). Condo sales in November (316) matched October 2011 (316), and increased over November 2010 (306). On an annual basis, sales for both SFH and Condos have increased significantly since January 2011. Keep in mind, sales are a ‘leading indicator’ of prices. The attached graphs show the connection of sales to price. Prices are being stubborn however.
Median Sales Price: SFH November median price ($585,000) is up from October 2011 ($579,500) and exactly matches November 2010 ($585,000). Condo November median price ($292,500) is down from October 2011 ($306,250) and lower than November 2010 ($312,000). This will be the media’s headline.
So far this year, November median sales prices for both SFH and Condos are up over January 2011. Prices are also still up over the market bottom of mid-2009. SFH hit their low of $570,000 in June of 2009. Condos bottomed out at $291,000 in August 2009, and dipped to $290,000 in January of this year. Prices peaked in June 2007 with the SFH median reaching $684,000 and the Condo median topping out at $342,000. These milestones are marked on the attached Median Sales Price pdf.
Days on Market (DOM): SFH DOM (36) dropped from October 2011 (45) and from November 2010 (42). Condo DOM (41) were up from October 2011 (39) and down from November 2010 (46). We have to look all the way back to 2005 to see a November DOM this low.
Inventory: Inventory continues to fall. November SFH inventory (1,198) was down from October 2011 (1,234) and well below November 2010 (1,352). The Condo inventory drop was even bigger. November Condo inventory (1,674) was below October 2011 (1,719) and a huge drop from November 2010 (1,990). SFH Inventory levels for November 2011 are lower than November of 2005 (1,382). Also attached is a graphic view of inventory.
Months of Remaining Inventory (MORI): As you may expect with the low inventory levels, MORI was down for both SFH and Condos. November SFH MORI (4.9) was down from October 2011 (5.1) and November 2010 (5.5). November Condo MORI (5.1) was down slightly from October 2011 (5.3) but down considerably from November 2010 (6.2). We have seen a SFH MORI of 4.9 or lower only a few times since 2005. And we have to go all the way back to the market run up from 2003 to 2005 to see a Condo MORI of less than 5.1.
Overall, the real estate market in Hawaii is holding it's strength with historically low interest rates, low inventory and buyer demand.
Please let me know if you would like me to email you the all the November stats with graphs and data.
Kengo Ueno (R)